Retail sees promise - Strong September sales bode well for important holiday season

By Mae Anderson
The Associated Press

NEW YORK» Americans proved in September they are willing to spend, as long as the price and the product are right. Stores including Abercrombie & Fitch, Limited Brands and Macy’s posted strong September sales figures, helped by customers lured to malls by back-to-school discounting. That strength was partly offset by erratic weather in the last week of the month, including a heat wave on the West Coast and tropical storms on the East Coast.

The results are a positive sign that shoppers will be willing to spend during the upcoming holiday season. “I think the doom and gloom that many of us anticipated for the quarter appears unfounded,” said Stifel Nicolaus analyst Richard Jaffe. “Credit goes to the U.S. consumer and the U.S. retailer for sleuthing out what she wants and giving it to her.”

The International Council of Shopping Centers’ index of September retail sales rose 2.6 percent, near the low end of its forecast that ranged from 2.5 percent to 3 percent growth.

But the number is stronger than it appears, since retailers were up against year-ago results that were the first positive numbers in a year, making comparisons more difficult.

Mike Niemira, ICSC director of research and chief economist, said he expects holiday sales to rise 3 percent to 3.5 percent, slightly better than results in September, which is the third-largest sales month in terms of volume.

Still, results remain moderate compared with pre-recession performance. Analysts do not expect any major sales surge until unemployment, housing and consumer-confidence sectors markedly improve.

“Our holiday projections are not for a gangbuster season,” Niemira said.
A hot August and a late Labor Day helped push more back-to-school sales into the month.
In Denver, some young shoppers acknowledged that they had postponed some of their back-to-school purchases.

Breanna Seaton, a student at East High School, said she waited because there tend to be more sales in September.

Outside Forever 21 in downtown Denver, other shoppers agreed. “I’ve been barely starting to get stuff for school,” said Claudia Adame, a college student in Denver.

Nationally, top performers were stores that offered attractive prices or unique items that consumers feel are “must-haves.” Bright spots included teen retailers and luxury stores.